KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Above 10.0% 9%In testa tra 15 esiti
Qualità del mercato
28 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
1,2K €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
10.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 minuti fa
3 set 26, 01:00 UTC4 gen 30, 13:29 UTC
Trend
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US unemployment rate at year-end 2026
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2027
KalshiUS unemployment rate at year-end 2028
KalshiWill AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US unemployment rate exceed 10% again before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS unemployment rate at year-end 2030
KalshiRegole
If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2029 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- “Year-end” refers exclusively to the December reference month, regardless of when the corresponding data are released.
- It does not refer to the annual average, the fourth-quarter average, the highest unemployment rate reported during the year, or the latest unemployment rate available as of December 31.
- The Expiration Value is the first non-preliminary seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for December 2029.
- Values will be compared as published without rounding.
- Later revisions will not affect the outcome.
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 10,7K €
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Volume totale
- 612,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,9K €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume totale
- 2,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,3K €
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US unemployment rate at year-end 2029?
- Kalshi quota Above 10.0% al 9% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US unemployment rate at year-end 2029?
- US unemployment rate at year-end 2029 dovrebbe risolversi il 4 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato US unemployment rate at year-end 2029?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) for December 2029 is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.