KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Sì 51%
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
4,3K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
48.0% / 51.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 minuti fa
11 mar 26, 19:00 UTC4 mar 27, 13:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will September 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 U.S. nonfarm payroll employment increase by at least 150,000?
Manifold MarketsWill U.S. nonfarm payroll employment decline in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegole
If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Only the first non-preliminary release for each quarter will be considered.
- Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
Mercati aperti
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt46%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 90,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 358,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 35,8K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 548,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 29,8K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-2.0pt58%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,7K €
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 17,7K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-2.0pt22%
- Volume totale
- 310,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 6,5K €
- Recession this year?
- CPI in September
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- Kalshi quota Yes al 51% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter? dovrebbe risolversi il 4 marzo 2027.
- Come viene liquidato U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If U.S. nonfarm business sector labor productivity year-over-year growth is above 3% in any quarter of 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.