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Dati al 13 set 2026, 06:55 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
Raúl Castro 100%In testa tra 28 esiti
Qualità del mercato
22 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
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Liquidità sconosciutaTrader
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 minuti fa
30 apr 26, 18:38 UTC1 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (aka AOC) be charged with a federal crime by February 1, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Destiny be charged by the federal or Florida government by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
KalshiRegole
Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- If the named outcome has been formally charged with a federal crime after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
- Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
- If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/6JbZL04LYK78sGvg3AbPWn/974e0445a1cef725626f24205bb61c83/Individual_Charged_-_Terms_and_Conditions.docx.pdf).
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt78.4%
- No change+1.0pt20.6%
- 50+ bps increase-0.2pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 120,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,7 Mln €
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt76.7%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt20.4%
- Cut 25bps1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 53 Mln €
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps-3.0pt68.8%
- Fed maintains rate+4.0pt24.6%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.3%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.1pt92%
- Exactly 1 cut-0.2pt6%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.3pt1%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting82%
- September Meeting-1.0pt79%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-1.5pt86.1%
- No+1.5pt13.9%
- Volume totale
- 7,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 54,6K €
- Fed Decision in October?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026??
- Gemini quota Raúl Castro al 100% al 13 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026??
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026??
- Gemini liquida questo mercato come segue: Which listed people will be formally charged with a federal crime before Jan 1, 2027?
- Dove altro è quotato Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.