PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 1 sept. 2026, 20:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 17%-1.0ptEn tête parmi 7 options
Qualité du marché
43 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
8,6 €
Liquidité
1,8 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
0.1 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
192
Variation 7j
-0.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard29 déc. 25, 22:051 janv. 27, 4:59
Tendances
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Règles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.