Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 67.5%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète25 janv. 26, 21:53 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia capture Lyman by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Bilytske by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia capture Kramatorsk at least once before EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture more territory than it loses to Russia in October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine capture the city of Donetsk before the Russia-Ukraine war ends
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Russian forces establish full military control over Lyman, Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution sources
- Confirmation from: (at least 3 of these) Suriyakmaps, Kalibrated, Military Summary, DPA, AMK
- Official statements from Ukrainian/Russian military command
- Map shaded red on ISW map
Comparaison des sources de prévision
Marchés ouverts
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+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 558,1 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
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- New People (NL)-1.6pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt50%
- October 3128.8%
- September 30-1.0pt11.9%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-4.0pt30%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-4.0pt22%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+1.0pt10%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- December 3110%
- November 30-1.5pt5%
- October 31-1.2pt3%
+6 résultats de plus
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 68% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria
- Où Will Russia capture Lyman in 2026? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket.