PolymarketFerméVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréCe marché est fermé et en attente d'une résolution confirmée.
En attente d'une résolution vérifiée
CoinRithm attend un règlement confirmé par le fournisseur avant de traiter ce marché comme résolu.
Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 9 sept. 2026, 01:56 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Probabilité implicite actuelle
September 15 100%+57.0pt
Qualité du marché
65 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
15,9 k €
Liquidité
50 k €
Liquidité élevéeAchat / Vente
99.1% / 100.0%
Écart
0.9 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard3 sept. 26, 14:59 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Chronologie des Probabilités
September 15100%
September 30100%
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran target Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Qatar by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran target Saudi Arabia by which date?
PolymarketWill a significant number of Palestinians from Gaza be permanently resettled in Egypt and/or Jordan under Trump's term?
Manifold MarketsJordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030
Manifold MarketsJordan Peterson becomes a Roman Catholic (ends 2030)
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Jordan through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Amman time.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Jordan.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.