Probabilité implicite actuelle
45%+ 91%En tête parmi 4 options
45%+ 91%Qualité du marché
55 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
18,4 k €
Liquidité
2,3 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
5.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
2 oct. 26, 22:17 UTC1 juil. 27, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Conditions de la plateforme
Source : Polymarket
Ces conditions sont indicatives ; les opérations simulées de CoinRithm suivent leurs propres règles.
- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Oui
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
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PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
Manifold MarketsWill Gemini 4 Argon be released publicly before October 15
Manifold MarketsRègles
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Argon model added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Any model whose official name includes "Argon," or that Google officially describes as an Argon model, an Argon-class model, or the public release or counterpart of the model referenced in the announcement, will qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
