Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 63.5%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète10 févr. 25, 01:00 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027?
KalshiHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.
- Developed collaboratively by the Center for Al Safety and Scale Al, HLE comprises 3,000 unambiguous and verifiable academic questions contributed by nearly 1,000 subject-matter experts from over 500 institutions across 50 countries.
- The dataset is multimodal, with approximately 10% of the questions requiring both image and text comprehension, while the remaining 90% are text-based.
- As of early 2025, state-of-the-art Al models have demonstrated limited success on the HLE benchmark.
- For instance, OpenAl's 03-mini (high) model achieved an accuracy of 13% when evaluated solely on text-based questions.
- OpenAl's Deep Research agent, which leverages the 03 model for extensive web browsing and data analysis, reached an accuracy of 26.6% on the HLE benchmark.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 64% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.