Probabilité implicite actuelle
50%+ 81%+0.1ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Qualité du marché
58 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
2,6 k €
Liquidité
4 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
3.0 pt
Spread modéréCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-1.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
23 juil. 26, 22:57 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiWill Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.