Probabilité implicite actuelle
40%+ 89%En tête parmi 4 options
Qualité du marché
36 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
639,9 €
Liquidité
1,6 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
16.0 pt
Spread largeCommentaires
0
Variation 7j
-10.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
29 juil. 26, 23:18 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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KalshiWill Google Gemini rank above ChatGPT in the App Store at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- Any Gemini model labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview).
- Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
- Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.