Probabilité implicite actuelle
45%+ 66%+1.0%En tête parmi 5 options
Qualite du marche
79 / 100
Haute qualitéVolume 24h
1,8 k €
Liquidité
13,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
65.0% / 66.0%
Spread
1.5%
Spread serréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 minutes
23 juil. 26, 22:4831 déc. 26, 23:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
45%+66%
Tendance du volume
$2.0k24 juil.3j de données26 juil.
Marchés Associés
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
9,2 k €SpaceX: 86%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched?
6,2 k €By Dec 31, 2025: 74%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill any lawmakers use the threat of AI to justify funding space exploration before 2026?
659,2 €Oui: 11.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will Starship complete an orbit?
584,5 €February 2024: 0%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?
0 €SpaceX: 97%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
AI data center in space by ?
0 €December 31, 2027: 15%FUTUUR
FUTUURActifs dans ces sujets
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Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph
DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto News
DeepMind CEO Says AGI Will Be Bigger Than Electricity or FireDecryptRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any SpaceXAI Grok model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
- The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/.
- If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again.
- If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used.