Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.9%
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète17 févr. 25, 15:43 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill a country leave NATO this year?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the USA pass legislation to leave NATO by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave NATO in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRègles
resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will USA leave NATO by the end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : resolves YES if the USA formally files whatever legal and diplomatic paperwork necessary to formally leave the defensive union. this will not resolve NO for an announcement of intention.