Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.7%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète6 janv. 26, 22:37 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill any country leave NATO in 2026?
FutuurWill USA leave NATO by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the USA pass legislation to leave NATO by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat is the next country to leave NATO?
Manifold MarketsWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- As of 2026, no member state has rescinded their membership, but this market resolves YES if any NATO member country formally notifies the United States of withdrawal under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty before December 31, 2026.
- A country must send the United States a "notice of denunciation," which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies, and after a one-year waiting period, the country would be out.
- The market resolves YES if such notice is formally issued during 2026, regardless of when the one-year waiting period expires.
- Resolution will be verified through official NATO announcements or statements from the withdrawing country's government.
- Considerations
