Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.8%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 minutes
13 oct. 26, 04:48 UTC31 oct. 26, 14:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will the biggest earthquake be on October 13, 2026?
PolymarketMajor earthquake to hit the West Coast of the US by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
This market will be resolved as YES only if an earthquake strong enough to be covered as major news outside Japan occurs between October 13 and October 31, 2026, Japan time.
- This applies to the 23 wards of the former Tokyo city and not the minor cities, towns, and outlying islands governed by the Tokyo Metropolitan prefecture.
- Judgment will be based on a mention in news coverage of an earthquake taking place in "central Tokyo" or mentioning as taking place specifically in one or more of the 23 wards, in an article posted to CNN's international edition website (edition.cnn.com).