Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 55%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard27 oct. 24, 07:16 UTC31 déc. 00, 16:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
KalshiWhen will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
KalshiWill P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill any of DeepMind's formal conjectures be resolved before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will P vs NP be resolved?
KalshiRègles
If this question is resolve as “No” but you vote “No” what would the answer then?
- But if this question resolve as “Yes” but then it will be “No”?
- Is this a paradox?
- I don’t know, which is why I’m making a manifold question to see how the internet collectively solve this paradox, feel free to suggest the answer, but I already have one in my mind…
Marchés ouverts
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 59,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,5 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 271 k €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 24,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9 k €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume total
- 302,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8 k €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will this question be resolved as “No”? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 55% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will this question be resolved as “No”? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will this question be resolved as “No”? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 3000.
- Comment Will this question be resolved as “No”? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If this question is resolve as “No” but you vote “No” what would the answer then?