Prévision communautaire actuelle
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15
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète23 sept. 25, 15:30 UTC31 déc. 44, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill there be scientific consensus that Polynesians made Pre-Columbian contact with South Americans?
Manifold MarketsWill there be scientific consensus of the existence of silicon based forms of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2060?
Manifold MarketsIn 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes if it is generally considered true in the scientific community that life existed on mars at some point in the past by Jan 1, 2045.
- This is somewhat subjective, but any credible counterargument to life's existence or alternate explanation of phenomena that might indicate life will cause me to resolve this question No. If there is a positive consensus before 2045, I will resolve this Yes early.