Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70.7%
Prévisionnistes
71
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète14 févr. 24, 10:47 UTC21 févr. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Above-ground nuclear explosion by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon explosion cause over 1,000 deaths before the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketWill US annex any territory in 2026?
PolymarketUK announces transfer of Falklands to Argentina in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)
- September 2017: The most recent confirmed nuclear test occurred in North Korea.
- 2006, 2009, 2013, 2016, and 2017: North Korea conducted nuclear tests.
- 1998: India and Pakistan, non-signatories, last tested nuclear weapons.
- July 11, 1958: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Bikini Atoll with a yield of 9.3 megatons.
- September 19, 1962: A nuclear weapon test occurred at Novaya Zemlya.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 doit être résolu le 21 février 2030.
- Comment Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Here is the history of Nuclear Explosions :)