Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 70.3%
Prévisionnistes
136
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard7 févr. 23, 18:40 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a new UN-recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsYemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Must be largely undisputed.
- The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.