Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 70.3%
Prévisionnistes
136
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète7 févr. 23, 18:40 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsYemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Must be largely undisputed.
- The most recent one as of market creation was South Sudan in 2011.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+2.8pt97%
- September 25-0.5pt86%
- September 3078%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 947,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 688,2 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 31+1.0pt34%
- September 30-2.0pt9%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 58,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 289,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+2.0pt21%
- October 31+4.0pt14%
- September 30+0.3pt3%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhere will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- No Meeting by September 30-0.8pt87.9%
- USA+1.3pt11.1%
- Pakistan-0.5pt1%
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 70% au 19 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Must be largely undisputed.