Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 77.2%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète2 juin 23, 09:04 UTC2 janv. 30, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a new internationally recognized country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia (Catalunya) gain internationally recognized independence before 2030?
Manifold MarketsYemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketTencent market share this week
KalshiRègles
market will resolve jan 1, 2030. "becoming a citizen" is defined as passing whatever citizenship test the country in question has, OR a country's lawmakers deciding that one or more AIs is human enough to be granted citizen status after being assembled/programmed in that country, much like how a baby born there is granted citizen status.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt67.3%
- ChatGPT+0.9pt13.1%
- Gemini+3.1pt12.2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10 M €
- Volume 24h
- 88,8 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt74%
- December 15,-9.5pt67%
- November 30,-17.0pt50%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T-1.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-6.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-1.0pt16.7%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
- Above 5.6%+33.0pt98%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 224,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 23.6%+3.0pt99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 22.7%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 197,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 234,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 77% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : market will resolve jan 1, 2030. "becoming a citizen" is defined as passing whatever citizenship test the country in question has, OR a country's lawmakers deciding that one or more AIs is human enough to be granted citizen status after being assembled/programmed in that country, much like how a baby born there is granted citizen status.