Will there be a civil war in Russia at any point before EOY 2050?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 55.4%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard6 mai 23, 12:14 UTC31 déc. 50, 19:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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FutuurRègles
The Russian civil war of 1917-1923 doesn't count.
- I only mean a war that started later that the creation of the market (6 May 2023).
- Update (25 Jan 2024): after discussion with @PS, I decided that if an edge case arises, I will check Wikipedia and Western media and see if they consistently describe the conflict in question as a civil war.
- Also, if in doubt, I may or may not temporarily freeze the market and consult the traders, and/or resolve N/A.