Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Moyen-OrientOne-OffTechChineEuropeIARussie / UkraineRégulationPolitique américaine8mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:15 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète17 juil. 26, 11:52 UTC29 juin 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
Manifold MarketsWill the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketOn which dates will the US government be shutdown?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government rescind the Anthropic ban?
KalshiRègles
In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30.
- This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.
- Resolves YES if:
- between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:
- Government-mandated.
- A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.