Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027? ?

Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Middle EastOne-OffTech China Europe IA Russia / Ukraine Régulation US Politics9mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 50%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 heures

Obsolète

17 juil. 26, 11:52 UTC29 juin 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30.

This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.
Resolves YES if:
between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:
Government-mandated.
A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Middle EastOne-OffTech China Europe IA Russia / Ukraine Régulation US Politics9mois

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Oui 50%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 5 heures

Obsolète

17 juil. 26, 11:52 UTC29 juin 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

This market asks whether the mechanism fires again in near future for the same or different frontier models.
Resolves YES if:
between market creation and June 30, 2027, ALL of the following occur:
Government-mandated.
A US government body orders or legally compels a US-based AI developer to suspend or restrict access to one of its models.

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027? ?: Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027? sera-t-il résolu ?: Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027? doit être résolu le 29 juin 2027.
Comment Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In June 2026, a US Commerce Department export-control directive forced Anthropic to suspend Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, producing a 19-day global outage before controls were lifted on June 30.

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?

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