Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 19 juil. 2026, 05:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-3
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30 52.9%+19.6ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 jours
Obsolète18 juil. 26, 3:5230 juin 27, 4:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/3053%
Tendance du volume
$60318 juil.2j de données19 juil.
Marchés Associés
Which space application will first use 1 MWe?
269,7 €Beamed power: 3.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
105,4 €Oui: 3%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the federal government start mining Bitcoin?
108,1 €Oui: 4%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will Bitcoin mining be regulated in the US by the end of 2026?
0 €Oui: 20%FUTUUR
FUTUUR
Which company has best AI model end of July?
69,1 k €Anthropic: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
14,8 k €August 31: 88%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActifs dans ces sujets
Actualités Associées
Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter
Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
Over 95% of Coinbase’s code is now written with AICointelegraph
DeepSeek plots $71B IPO to challenge OpenAI in global AI raceCrypto NewsRègles
Resolves to the option matching the total pairwise structural similarity score of the endpoint snapshot (frameworks as published on 2027-06-30), per the pre-registered coding scheme published at Audit Motion 003|三大前沿安全框架,正在收斂還是分化?
- Baseline (2026-07-18): 19/30.
- Scoring: 5 dimensions (capability threshold definition, deployment-halt triggers, external verification role, disclosure obligations, amendment governance) × 3 framework pairs (Anthropic–OpenAI, Anthropic–GDM, OpenAI–GDM), each scored 0–2.
- Converge = ≥ 22 (baseline +3); Diverge = ≤ 16 (baseline −3); No significant change = 17–21.
- The coding scheme, per-cell criteria, and baseline scores were published before market creation and are frozen.
- Endpoint scoring uses identical criteria.