Prévision communautaire actuelle
Converge — similarity score ≥ 22/30 52.9%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète18 juil. 26, 03:52 UTC30 juin 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US government force another frontier AI model shutdown for allied users by mid-2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI labs announce joint pacing agreement in 2026?
PolymarketFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves to the option matching the total pairwise structural similarity score of the endpoint snapshot (frameworks as published on 2027-06-30), per the pre-registered coding scheme published at Audit Motion 003|三大前沿安全框架,正在收斂還是分化?
- Baseline (2026-07-18): 19/30.
- Scoring: 5 dimensions (capability threshold definition, deployment-halt triggers, external verification role, disclosure obligations, amendment governance) × 3 framework pairs (Anthropic–OpenAI, Anthropic–GDM, OpenAI–GDM), each scored 0–2.
- Converge = ≥ 22 (baseline +3); Diverge = ≤ 16 (baseline −3); No significant change = 17–21.
- The coding scheme, per-cell criteria, and baseline scores were published before market creation and are frozen.
- Endpoint scoring uses identical criteria.
