KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Before Jan 1, 2028 50.9%En tête parmi 3 optionsAjusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
36 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
2 k €
Liquidité
2 k €
Faible liquiditéÉcart
10.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
17 sept. 26, 00:00 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. and China announce an AI safety agreement?
Kalshi[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich YouTube channels will post an AI Safety/Alignment video in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurWhat grade will Anthropic get for existential safety in the FLI's AI Safety Index Winter 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed.
- Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify.
- The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify.
- The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency.
- Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%+3.0pt97%
- Above 2.75%+34.0pt95%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 126,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 104,7 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt14.6%
- Gemini+0.6pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,8 M €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.5pt69%
- Moonshot-4.0pt14%
- Z.ai+1.3pt6%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,86%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,78%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,9 M €
- Volume 24h
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+9.0pt99%
- Above 4.5%+26.0pt56%
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt14%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+1.0pt87.3%
- Moonshot+0.8pt8.8%
- Z.ai-0.8pt2%
+8 résultats de plus
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? ?
- Kalshi cote Before Jan 1, 2028 à 51% au 18 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.