Prévision communautaire actuelle
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33
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète30 déc. 23, 22:14 UTC2 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
PolymarketWhich space application will first use 1 MWe?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Quantum computing has the possibility to break encryption as we know it.
- The widely used encryption methods, including RSA, AES, ECC, SHA-256, and HMAC, face unprecedented challenges.
- This question resolves YES if, by 2030, quantum computing successfully decrypts and exploits data secured by at least one of the mentioned encryption methods, leading to a substantial breach in the user data of a major company.
- This question resolves NO if, by 2030, none of the commonly employed encryption methods are breached and exploited by quantum computing.
