Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 70.9%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 25, 08:57 UTC1 janv. 30, 00:00 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market assesses whether quantum computers will demonstrate a practical advantage in cryptographic applications before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution criteria: - YES: A quantum computer successfully breaks a currently secure encryption standard (like RSA-2048) OR demonstrates practical quantum-resistant cryptography capabilities that are deployed in production systems. - NO: No such practical advantage is demonstrated by the end of 2029.
- The achievement must be publicly verified by multiple reputable institutions.
