Prévision communautaire actuelle
IBM 26.5%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 25, 08:58 UTC1 janv. 30, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing achieve practical advantage in cryptography before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRègles
This market predicts which major technology company will achieve the most significant breakthrough in quantum computing by December 31, 2029.
- A "significant breakthrough" is defined as: 1.
- Development of a quantum computer with >1000 logical qubits, OR 2.
- First demonstration of quantum advantage for a commercially relevant problem, OR 3.
- Development of a quantum-resistant cryptography standard that becomes widely adopted.
- The breakthrough must be publicly announced and independently verified by at least two academic institutions.
