Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 89.1% au 20 octobre 2026.

Quand Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will AI break blockchain mechanism before EOY ? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.

Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 89.1%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 3 heures

Obsolète

15 oct. 26, 17:34 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before December 31 at 11:59 PM UTC, a confirmed security advisory, peer-reviewed publication, or public proof-of-concept demonstrates that an AI system or AI-derived mathematical algorithm has broken a core cryptographic primitive or consensus mechanism of a major public blockchain (e.g., Bitcoin or Ethereum).
To resolve to YES, the event must satisfy at least one of the following criteria:
Private Key Recovery: A practical method derived via AI that allows recovering a private key from an exposed public key for standard signature schemes (e.g., ECDSA or Schnorr) using available classical hardware.
Hash Function Break: A viable preimage or collision attack against hash functions used by major chains (e.g., SHA-256 or Keccak-256) enabled by AI mathematical breakthroughs.
Consensus Break: A functional protocol-level attack generated or executed via AI that breaks double-spend protection or block validation on a top-20 cryptocurrency network without acquiring majority hash power or stake.