Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?
IAOne-Off10mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 63.2%
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète5 août 26, 18:50 UTC1 sept. 27, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Safety researchers should take a public stance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsHow will the structural similarity of the three frontier AI safety frameworks (Anthropic RSP, OpenAI Preparedness, GDM F
Manifold MarketsWill Alberta successfully create an Alberta Pension Plan (APP) after withdrawing from the Canadian Pension Plan (CPP)?
Manifold MarketsWhen will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketUS-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
Manifold MarketsRègles
With the news that AISI UK gave live Internet access to Mythos and malicious actions ensued (Incident Report: unsanctioned agent behaviour during cyber testing | AISI Work) I'm wondering how long it will be before safety researchers cause an LLM under their control to release a virus or worm to the greater Internet.
- The nature of the prompts given does not matter for resolution, but for a YES resolution the humans running the LLM must ostensibly be either at safety/security labs or frontier labs; that is, organizations whose reputation would be harmed by releasing malware.
- [link preview]