Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientRussie / UkraineTechEntreprises et affaires2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 78.5%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète4 févr. 26, 03:17 UTC1 janv. 27, 03:13 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?
Manifold MarketsWill the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if Swift Centre has a better Brier score than Polymarket, across their five forecasts.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Context: Swift Centre claims that Polymarket is not the ultimate source of truth and that their forecasters can beat Polymarket.
- https://www.swiftcentre.org/publicforecasts/yk77y2zct07ttcl00lmuk2x2s629fh
- Here were their five forecasts:
- 1) The Swift Centre forecasters saw a ~4% chance of the United States acquiring Greenland in 2026, distinctly lower than the 12% that was on the relevant Polymarket question.