Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
Plateformes d'échangeGéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientRussie / UkraineChine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 85.9%
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Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète6 août 25, 04:23 UTC1 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution will be based on this Wikipedia page or its successor, if possible.
- If it significantly changes criteria or ceases to update, I will do my best to resolve based on other credible reporting and the same criteria.
- Major war is defined as 10,000 or more combat-related deaths in current or previous year.
- Nuclear powers will include the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- The conflict in question must not currently be listed on the "major wars" section of the page in question, as of question creation.
- That list is the Myanmar conflict, Arab-Israeli conflict, Insurgency in the Maghreb, Russo-Ukrainian War, and Sudanese civil war.
