Will there be a Regional War involving 3 or more countries in South America by the end of 2030?
GéopolitiqueOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 71%
Non 71%Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 30 minutes
30 nov. 23, 02:39 UTC31 déc. 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Regional war = a war involving more than 3 states in the same region (South America), waged by national or coalition armed forces in the course of which the sides are pursuing important territorial, economic, military or other objectives.
- Conflicts causing at least 1,000 deaths in one calendar year are considered wars by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program.
- This is the threshold I will also be using for this market.
- I will by using ACLED and UCDP data - any of those two trackers crossing the 1,000 death mark will trigger a YES resolution.
