Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 75%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 23, 14:45 UTC1 janv. 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Doomsday Clock be between 76-83 seconds to Midnight in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRègles
Will the Doomsday Clock that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's publish regularly be at or above 5 minutes to midnight, for any time before 01.01.2040? If the change happens at midnight it will also count.
- If the clock shows a higher time because of some error it doesn't count.
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt22%
- Before 2028+1.0pt14%
- Before 20275%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 82,6 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.0pt73%
- 2+1.5pt25%
- 3+0.3pt2%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 13,9 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
- Before 204064%
- Before 2035+4.8pt58%
- Before 203033%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 37,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 806 €
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No93%
- Yes-1.4pt7%
- Volume total
- 689,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 656,2 €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2040.
- Comment Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will the Doomsday Clock that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's publish regularly be at or above 5 minutes to midnight, for any time before 01.01.2040? If the change happens at midnight it will also count.