Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77.7%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 23, 14:46 UTC1 janv. 50, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Doomsday Clock reach 5 minutes or more to midnight before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill Doomsday Clock be between 76-83 seconds to Midnight in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the Doomsday Clock reach 50 seconds to midnight by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Will the Doomsday Clock that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's publish regularly be at or above 15 minutes to midnight, for any time before 01.01.2050? If the change happens at midnight it will also count.
- If the clock shows a higher time because of some error it doesn't count.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 20+0.3pt97%
- September 25-7.5pt84%
- September 30-3.5pt77%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 998,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 667,5 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+21 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt60%
- October 31+3.0pt36%
- September 309%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt83.2%
- Yes+1.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 58,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 257,7 k €
POLYMARKETBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt22%
- October 31+2.5pt12%
- September 30+1.1pt3%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt96%
- September 25+4.0pt88%
- September 23+7.5pt74%
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be?
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Houthis enter Aden by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Israel military action against Yemen by which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2050.
- Comment Will the Doomsday Clock reach 15 minutes or more to midnight before 2050? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will the Doomsday Clock that the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists's publish regularly be at or above 15 minutes to midnight, for any time before 01.01.2050? If the change happens at midnight it will also count.