Will Republicans have high turnout of voters in 2026 midterms?
InflationOne-OffPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202615j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.4%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
6 oct. 26, 14:50 UTC4 nov. 26, 11:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the percentage of self-identified Republicans in the national exit polls for the 2026 U.S. House elections is 34.0% or greater.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
- Primary Source of Truth: The national exit poll dataset produced by Edison Research for the National Election Pool (NEP), as officially reported on major news outlets such as CNN's Exit Polls.
- Metric: Under the "Party Identification" category, the percentage of surveyed voters who identify as "Republican".
- Alternative Fallback: If Edison Research/NEP exit polls are unavailable or do not publish national party identification data by June 1, 2027, the market will resolve to YES if Republican candidates win at least 50.0% of the total national popular vote for the U.S. House of Representatives, as certified and published by the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives.