Will the stock market crash if the Republicans win the midterms?
InflationOne-OffActionsPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 20266j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.8%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète8 mai 26, 15:47 UTC3 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 anyday in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
PolymarketHow many Senate seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
KalshiHow many House seats will Republicans win in the Midterms?
KalshiWill republicans win the midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve "Yes" if the S&P 500 index closes at least 20% lower than its value on the day of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections within 30 calendar days following the election date.
- If the S&P 500 does not decline by at least 20% within this 30-day window, the market will resolve "No."
- The closing price of the S&P 500 on the day of the election and the subsequent daily closing prices will be verified using official data from S&P Dow Jones Indices or a reliable financial reporting source such as Bloomberg or Yahoo Finance.
- A "crash" is defined here as a sudden, rapid, double-digit decline in the index value, specifically reaching or exceeding a 20% drop from the election-day closing price at any point within the specified timeframe.
- A stock market crash is generally characterized by a sudden, dramatic, and widespread decline in stock prices, often driven by panic selling and significant loss of market value.