Will post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
One-OffGéopolitiqueSanté et médecineRussie / UkraineChineEuropeManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 70.4%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 24 minutes
27 sept. 26, 09:58 UTC31 déc. 49, 11:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will post-WWII international orders die before 2030?
Manifold MarketsDid the USA missile sites in Okinawa receive erroneous orders to launch their nuclear missiles during the cold war?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketEuropean country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, at least two of the following four events occur, signaling the definitive collapse ("death") of the post-WWII international order:
- Collapse of the Postwar Security Alliance: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from the treaty.
- Dissolution of the Global Security Body: The United Nations (UN) is formally dissolved, its charter is formally declared null and void, or the UN Security Council permanently ceases to convene or function for a continuous period of at least 365 days.
- Collapse of the Bretton Woods Economic Framework: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are both formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from both institutions.
- Outbreak of Great Power War: A direct, officially declared or internationally recognized interstate military conflict occurs directly between the United States and either China or the Russian Federation, or a direct military conflict occurs between any three of the permanent five (P5) members of the UN Security Council (US, UK, France, Russia, China) simultaneously.