European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
1.5 pts (24h)GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope3mois
PolymarketVérifier la disponibilitéSans KYC2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
December 31 10%+1.5pt
Qualité du marché
57 / 100
Qualité moyenneVolume 24h
35,8 €
Liquidité
11,6 k €
Liquidité moyenneAchat / Vente
9.0% / 10.0%
Écart
1.0 pt
Spread serréCommentaires
13
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
28 déc. 25, 23:07 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
0%
Marchés Associés
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.