European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by which date?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / UkraineChineEurope1a
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June 30, 2027 · —
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Référence enregistrée
June 30, 2027 34%En tête parmi 4 options
June 30, 2027 34%Qualité du marché
≤49 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
12,2 k €
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4,5 k $US
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June 30, 2027Écart
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13
Variation 7j
+1.0 pts
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28 déc. 25, 23:07 UTC1 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
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June 30Perdu
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- Ordre minimum (parts):
- 5
- Pas de cotation:
- 1 points de pourcentage
- Frais:
- Non
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.