Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 81.7%
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26
Type de question
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète29 mars 25, 09:48 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRègles
For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.
- For the conflict to qualify, it needs to involve at least two of the major military powers listed in the title, in opposing camps.
- [link preview]"Europe" is either the European Union, or one of the major European militaries (UK, France, Germany).
- An internal European conflict such as UK-France would also count.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.