Will there be a US-China war if Trump gets elected in 2024?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineGéopolitiqueChineÉlection1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 05:41 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 85%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète15 juil. 24, 20:26 UTC20 janv. 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
- This market will resolve as N/A if Donald J. Trump does not win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, or if he does not assume the office of President on January 20, 2025.
- - An armed conflict is defined as sustained military engagements involving direct combat between the armed forces of the United States and the People's Republic of China.
- - This market will resolve as YES if an armed conflict occurs between the United States and the People's Republic of China during Trump's presidency.
- - If there is no armed conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China by the end of Trump's presidency, this market will resolve as NO.
- - The market will resolve on January 21, 2029.
- This allows for the possibility of Trump serving a full four-year term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029.
