Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.3%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète24 juin 26, 18:00 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will one of the significant German car manufacturers cease to exist by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade another country by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if, at any point on or before December 31, 2029, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization ceases to exist as defined below; otherwise it resolves NO.
- Resolves YES if any of the following occurs:
- The North Atlantic Treaty (the 1949 Washington Treaty) is formally terminated or abrogated, or NATO is formally dissolved, disbanded, or wound down as an organization, whether by agreement of its members or otherwise.
- NATO's core institutions are formally abolished such that the organization no longer operates — e.g., its command structure and headquarters are shut and the office of Secretary General is abolished with no continuation.
- NATO's membership falls below two states (a collective-defense alliance cannot exist with fewer than two members).
- Does NOT resolve YES (these are explicitly insufficient):