Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 97%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète17 mars 26, 14:08 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to exist before the EU does?
Manifold MarketsWill NATO cease to exist before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation-state by December 31, 2026. "Ceases to exist" means the Islamic Republic of Iran is no longer recognized as an independent country by the United Nations, its territory is partitioned among other nations, or it is formally dissolved or annexed.
- Resolution will be determined by official UN recognition status and major international news sources (Reuters, AP, BBC).
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
