Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 81%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 53 minutes
En retard11 déc. 25, 10:57 UTC31 déc. 99, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will global far-right global regime cause prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext leader out of power before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
This is a long-term YES/NO market about which “lasts longer”: Elon Musk as a living person, or the European Union as an ongoing political union (including clear institutional successors that carry on its identity).
- How this market resolves
- YES – Resolves YES if Elon Musk ceases to exist (see definition below) before the EU (as defined below) ceases to exist.
- NO – Resolves NO if the EU ceases to exist before Elon Musk ceases to exist.
- N/A – Resolves N/A if:
- The two events are effectively simultaneous in real-world terms (no sensible way to say which came first), or
