Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.2%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète7 mars 26, 00:40 UTC28 févr. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the US conduct ground operations in mainland Iran before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OFAC sanction a mainland Chinese bank for facilitating Iranian trade by September 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.
- Casualties include deaths and injuries.
- The attack must be carried out by Iranian state forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), or entities directly controlled by the Iranian government.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-supported groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) will count as YES if the group states the attack is meant as revenge for Iran.
- Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Attacks by Iranian-funded/directed groups (e.g., Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas) may count as YES if the attack was funded and directed by Iran.
- Attacks by those groups for other reasons (e.g., related to Gaza) would not count.
Marchés ouverts
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+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
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POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
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- Volume 24h
- 96,8 k €
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 doit être résolu le 28 février 2027.
- Comment Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if Iran successfully conducts a direct attack on the mainland United States (the 50 states) resulting in at least 10 casualties before March, the 1st, 2027.