Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMoyen-OrientRussie / UkraineChine
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 14:54 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 85.4%
Non 85.4%Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 45 minutes
En retard1 févr. 25, 16:21 UTC1 janv. 00, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Manifold MarketsWill the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran no longer be an Islamic Republic by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran obtains a nuclear weapon before it collapses, according to reliable media outlets.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- I will not bet on this market.
- Update 2025-02-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Weapon Resolution Clarification:
- Dirty bomb does not count as a nuclear weapon.
- Refer to the linked example for further context: Metaculus page
