FutuurVérifier la disponibilitéDonnées de résolution vérifiéesProbabilité implicite actuelle
Non 94%
Non 94%Qualité du marché
32 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
652,3 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
11
Commentaires
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 minutes
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran cease to be an Islamic Republic by EOY 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRègles
This event predicts whether the state of Iran will formally cease to be designated as an Islamic Republic at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, a qualifying outcome means an official change in the country’s constitutional name or form of government that removes the “Islamic Republic” designation.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements by Iran’s government or constitutional documents reflecting such a change.
- If Iran officially changes its constitutional name or form of government to omit the “Islamic Republic” designation during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- A coup, contested proclamation, or unrecognized declaration will not count unless acknowledged by Iran’s governing institutions or recognized by the United Nations.