If the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran falls by 2030, will Reza Pahlavi lead the new government a year later?
Politique américaineOne-OffGéopolitiqueMoyen-Orient4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 80.7%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète8 janv. 26, 00:14 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran fall?
Manifold MarketsWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
KalshiWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
PolymarketWill Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Islamic Republic of Iran ceases to hold power by December 31, 2030, AND Reza Pahlavi is the leader of Iran exactly one year after the commonly understood date of the regime's fall.
- The resolution of the linked market (https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO) determines whether the precondition is met.
- Resolves NO if the Islamic Republic falls by 2030 but: (1) anyone other than Pahlavi leads Iran one year post-fall; (2) Pahlavi assumes power but loses it within that one-year window; or (3) Pahlavi assumes power after the one-year deadline has passed.
- Resolves N/A if the Islamic Republic remains in power through 2030.
- Reza Pahlavi is an Iranian politician and dissident, and the eldest son of Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the last shah of Iran.