Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.3%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète24 juin 25, 21:06 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran test fire a nuclear weapon before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
LimitlessRègles
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/will-iran-acquire-a-nuclear-weapon
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, including reporting on weapons tests (reports that they had the weapon to perform the test are sufficient; they do not need to still be in possession of another one).