Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 89.7%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète13 mai 26, 16:08 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or a consensus of major intelligence agencies (such as the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence) officially confirms that Iran has successfully produced, tested, or acquired a fully functional nuclear weapon on or before December 31, 2027.
- If no such confirmation is made by this date, or if international authorities determine that Iran has not achieved this capability, the market resolves to NO.
- In the event of conflicting official reports, the market will resolve based on the assessment provided by the IAEA.
- Iran’s nuclear program has been a subject of intense international scrutiny for decades.
- Since the 2018 U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iran has progressively increased its uranium enrichment levels.
Marchés ouverts
CommoditiesKALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.175099%
- Above 4.160099%
- Above 4.170099%
+26 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 395,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 395,6 k €
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.900099%
+44 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 198,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 198,2 k €
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027-14.0pt40%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-15.0pt38%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIOhio gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.900099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+44 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 78,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 78,5 k €
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.1400+25.0pt99%
- Above 4.1200+10.0pt99%
- Above 4.0800+5.0pt99%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Brent crude oil price on September 09, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 11, 2026?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 8, 2026
- How high will peak electricity demand on the Texas ERCOT grid get in 2026?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Pennsylvania gas prices tomorrow
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 90% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Will Iran acquire nuclear weapon by the end of 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria