Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 81.6%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 24, 21:05 UTC17 déc. 00, 21:40 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will humanity go extinct before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsDid most cryopreserved humans go 24 hours before cryopreservation?
Manifold MarketsWill the Dodo bird be de-extinct by the end of 2028?
FutuurExtinct mammoth hybrids to be born alive by the end of 2027?
FutuurWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRègles
In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.
- He also estimated a "1 in 10" risk of extinction by unaligned AI within the next century.
Marchés ouverts
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.3pt4%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 58,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 460,9 k €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt21%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 20276%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 29,3 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+6.0pt86%
- Yes-6.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 20,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,4 k €
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030+0.1pt71%
- Before 2029+0.1pt30%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 257,2 k €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-8.0pt31%
- Above 1-2.0pt13%
- Above 2-4.0pt6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+1.0pt51%
- Before 203247%
- Before 203030%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 118,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 2,1 k €
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Humans go extinct by 2200? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 82% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Humans go extinct by 2200? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Humans go extinct by 2200? doit être résolu le 17 décembre 2200.
- Comment Will Humans go extinct by 2200? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : In 2020, Toby Ord estimates existential risk in the next century at "1 in 6" in his book The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity.