Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96%
Prévisionnistes
81
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète10 juil. 23, 20:48 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Humans go extinct by 2200?
Manifold MarketsMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWill RAY post reviews of at least five Scott Alexander essays before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
KalshiRègles
If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.
- For this question, we'll define humans the same as this Metaculus question:
- as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring.
- (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count).
- Any living humans living anywhere in the observable universe (or multiverse) (who are known to the entities operating Metaculus) on that date will be sufficient to resolve the question negatively.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CultureKALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds65%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,2 k €
KALSHIWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 10,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 k €
KALSHIWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Vanderbilt87%
- Rice84%
- UCLA79%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 15,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 431,2 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+0.5pt82.2%
- Yes-0.5pt17.8%
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 234,7 €
FORECASTEXWill UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Volume total
- 189,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 189,7 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Significant decrease+3.0pt60.4%
- No significant difference-11.0pt28.7%
- Significant increase+6.2pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 50,9 k €
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
- Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will humanity go extinct before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will humanity go extinct before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will humanity go extinct before 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will humanity go extinct before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If at least one human is alive on Jan 1, 2030, then this question resolves to NO.